| Component | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|
| Attention growth | 100% | 0.40 | +40.0 |
| Coverage growth | 0% | 0.00 | +0.0 |
| Cross-source breadth | 33% | 0.27 | +8.9 |
| Acceleration | 10% | 0.20 | +1.9 |
| Freshness | 0% | 0.13 | +0.0 |
| Saturation (subtracted) | 41% | 0.25 | −10.3 |
| Trend score (0–100) | | | 40.5 |
Opportunity = trend 40.5 × (1 − saturation 41%) × stage weight 0.4 × niche relevance 0.8 = 7.6
Saturation parts: volume 50%, time elevated 54%, mainstream 0%. Spike ratio = mean of the last 3 days ÷ median of days 4–31. A source counts as spiking at ≥ 1.5× and robust z ≥ 2.
| Source | Spike | Robust z | Week over week | Spiking |
|---|
| wikipedia | 119.22× | 79.7 | 7% | yes |
Full method: methodology. Rising means rising now; it is not a prediction that a topic will go viral.