| Component | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|
| Attention growth | 100% | 0.40 | +40.0 |
| Coverage growth | 0% | 0.00 | +0.0 |
| Cross-source breadth | 33% | 0.27 | +8.9 |
| Acceleration | 100% | 0.20 | +20.0 |
| Freshness | 4% | 0.13 | +0.6 |
| Saturation (subtracted) | 82% | 0.25 | −20.5 |
| Trend score (0–100) | | | 49.0 |
Opportunity = trend 49.0 × (1 − saturation 82%) × stage weight 0.4 × niche relevance 0.64 = 2.2
Saturation parts: volume 96%, time elevated 46%, mainstream 100%. Spike ratio = mean of the last 3 days ÷ median of days 4–31. A source counts as spiking at ≥ 1.5× and robust z ≥ 2.
| Source | Spike | Robust z | Week over week | Spiking |
|---|
| wikipedia | 945.93× | 1062.2 | 1909% | yes |
Full method: methodology. Rising means rising now; it is not a prediction that a topic will go viral.