| Component | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|
| Attention growth | 21% | 0.30 | +6.1 |
| Coverage growth | 0% | 0.25 | +0.0 |
| Cross-source breadth | 33% | 0.20 | +6.7 |
| Acceleration | 54% | 0.15 | +8.1 |
| Freshness | 80% | 0.10 | +8.0 |
| Saturation (subtracted) | 46% | 0.25 | −11.5 |
| Trend score (0–100) | | | 17.4 |
Opportunity = trend 17.4 × (1 − saturation 46%) × stage weight 1 × niche relevance 0.82 = 7.7
Saturation parts: volume 81%, time elevated 18%, mainstream 0%. Spike ratio = mean of the last 3 days ÷ median of days 4–31. A source counts as spiking at ≥ 1.5× and robust z ≥ 2.
| Source | Spike | Robust z | Week over week | Spiking |
|---|
| rss | 1.00× | 0.0 | 0% | no |
| gdelt | 1.00× | 0.0 | 0% | no |
| wikipedia | 1.60× | 3.5 | 206% | yes |
Full method: methodology. Rising means rising now; it is not a prediction that a topic will go viral.